2030 대한민국 부동산 (향후 10년간 대한민국 부동산 전망)

2030 대한민국 부동산 (향후 10년간 대한민국 부동산 전망)

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Description
2020년 핀셋규제에 따른 풍선효과로 전국 부동산 시장이 들썩이고, 코로나사태로 경기침체가 가속화하고, 초유의 제로 금리시대를 맞이한 상황에서 2030년까지 향후 10년간 부동산 시장을 전망한 책이다.

주택보급률이 100%를 넘어서면서 주택시장이 안정되었다고 자신해왔던 정부의 말을 비웃기라도 하듯 공급부족에 따른 투기문제가 지속되고 있어, 대량공급의 확대와 수요억제라는 두 가지 정책이 여전히 필요하다는 것을 강조하고 있다.

향후 10년간 부동산 트렌드는 주거복지, 고령화, 도시재생 이라는 흐름아래 투기와의 전쟁이 계속되면서 공급확대 정책과 수요억제 정책이라는 두 축으로 진행될 것이라고 예상하고 있다.

또한 3기 신도시, 재개발재건축, 수익형부동산 이라는 키워드를 중심으로 부동산 시장이 흘러 갈 것이며, 지역별로는 여전히 주택이 부족한 서울이 가장 관심을 받을 것이며, 지역별 호재가 있는 수도권과 광역시가 여전히 관심을 받을 것이라는 전망하고 있다.

향후 10년간 부동산 시장은 실수요자 위주로 재편될 것이며, 호재지역이나 경쟁력 있는 부동산상품을 중심으로 움직일 것이라고 분석하고, 투자지역은 서울과 수도권이 좋고, 투자 상품으로는 중소형아파트가 좋고, 투자입지는 도심 역세권을 추천하고 있다.

저금리, 저성장, 고령화 등으로 장기간 안정적으로 임대수익을 얻을 수 있는 수익형부동산 시대가 열릴 것이라고 보고 있으며, 또한 1인 가구의 증가에 따라 수익형부동산의 대표적인 상품인 주거용오피스텔, 다세대주택, 다가구주택, 도시형생활주택 등 소형주거상품에 투자하는 것이 안전할 것이라고 추천하고 있다.

국내 부동산 시장에 영향을 미칠 변수로는 정부의 정책방향과 강도, 각종 선거, 금리변화와 부동자금, 주택의 수급상황, 경기회복과 코로나사태 등이 있으며, 이들 변수들이 영향을 주고받으며 시장을 움직여 갈 것이라고 예상하였다.

국내 부동산 시장은 1997년 IMF와 2007년 국제금융위기 같은 돌발 상황만 생기지 않는다면 상승과 보합세를 반복하면서 우상향을 지속해 갈 것이지만, 코로나사태 같은 돌발변수가 장기화되어 내수가 장기간 침체되고, 세계 경제발 리스크가 몰려온다면 국내 부동산 시장을 직격탄을 맞게 될 것이라고 전망하였다.

책을 통해 향후 10년간 부동산 시장의 트렌드를 이해하고 투자의 방향을 잡는데 도움이 되며, 정부의 부동산 정책방향과 투자 상품에 대한 이해 및 투자지역을 선택하는데 도움이 되는 책이다.
저자

주호덕

현재한국열린사이버대학교부동산금융자산학과특임교수와(주)두바이컨설팅이사및(주)미라클공영대표로활동중이다.경기대학교대학원에서정치학박사학위를취득하고,부동산컨설턴트로활동하고있다.사회공헌을위해민주평통자문위원,로타리지구봉사회원,국제정치학회회원등사회활동과봉사활동도활발히하고있다.서울시정신문논설위원으로활동하고있으며,국제평화언론대상,대한민국사회발전공헌대상,글로벌자랑스런세계인대상,보건복지부장관상등을수상하였다.부동산컨설팅,업무용오피스,빌딩등의분야에이론과실무를겸비한전문가이며,빌딩컨설팅,투자,거래분야의전문가로활동하고,있다.
블로그주소-https://blog.naver.com/333jhd

목차

1장.2020년부동산시장
1.풍선효과로전국토가투기판·················································10
2.지역별풍선효과·····································································12
3.핀셋규제로집값,전세값폭등················································24

2장.주택시장변화와전망
1.대한민국주택시장의특징······················································28
2.아파트···················································································37
3.다가구·다세대·연립주택··························································44
4.타운하우스··············································································51
5.주상복합아파트·······································································54

3장.재개발과재건축
1.재개발과재건축비교·····························································64
2.광나루재건축사례································································70
3.일본의재개발사례································································73
4.재건축초과이익환수제·····························································79

4장.신도시
1.신도시의개념과개발현황······················································88
2.수도권1기·2기신도시··························································93
3.3기신도시·········································································114
4.신도시의미래······································································126

5장.수익형부동산

1.저금리시대,수익형부동산에투자하라································138

2.주거용수익형부동산····························································141
(1)오피스텔········································································141
(2)도시형생활주택····························································153
(3)상가주택········································································165

3.상업업무용수익형부동산······················································170
(1)상가···············································································170
(2)지식산업센터··································································174
(3)업무용오피스································································180

6장.2030부동산시장변화

1.2020-2040국토변화··························································190
(1)제5차국토종합계획(2020-2040)··································190
(2)광역교통2030계획·······················································195
(3)주택시장········································································204

2.부동산시장변화···································································209
(1)부동산시장의변화요인···············································209
(2)인구감소와가구구조변화···········································213
(3)고령화와베이비붐세대··················································219

3.부동산트렌드변화································································220
(1)주거복지시대의본격화··················································220
(2)문재인정부주거복지····················································222
(3)고령화와주택연금·························································238
(4)도시재생········································································244

7장.부동산정책과시장전망

1.문재인정부부동산정책···················································252
(1)문재인정부의부동산정책···········································252
(2)문재인정부부동산정책성공할까?······························264

2.향후부동산시장전망·························································272
(1)주택의대량공급필요····················································272
(2)재개발재건축규제완화필요··········································277
(3)수익형부동산시대를대비하라·······································280
(4)향후부동산전망···························································284